Poll shows more young voters are turning away from Joe Biden in favor of Donald Trump

02/29/2024 / By Laura Harris

A recent Axios and The Generation Lab poll found that former President Donald Trump is closing the 20-point popularity gap that President Joe Biden enjoyed with young voters in the 2020 election.

The poll, conducted from Feb. 3 to 14 among 1,073 individuals aged 18 to 34, reveals that Biden now leads Trump in this demographic by only four points. The results show that 48 percent of millennial and Generation Z voters say they would vote for Trump compared to the 52 percent who would vote for Biden “if the election were held today.”

Trump’s increasing popularity among younger voters aligns with their shifting priorities. For instance, 39 percent of the respondents stated that the economy is their top concern, followed by abortion at 16 percent and student debt and immigration, both at 11 percent. Meanwhile, so-called climate change, despite its global significance, was only the primary concern for 10 percent of young voters, followed by guns at seven percent. (Related: Mainstream media DISMAYED by poll result showing Trump leading Biden by 9 points in hypothetical head-to-head matchup.)

The survey also measures voter engagement, with 70 percent of respondents indicating they were definitely – 42 percent – or probably – 28 percent – going to vote. On the other hand, 30 percent are still uncertain about voting – 17 percent are leaning towards probably not voting, and 13 percent are definitely not voting.

Moreover, the poll touched on the influence of celebrity endorsements, specifically exploring the impact of the ever-famous pop icon Taylor Swift’s potential support for either candidate. But the poll reveals that only four percent of those surveyed claim they would consider changing the vote based on Swift’s endorsement of either Trump or Biden.

“We don’t know enough yet. But this idea that young people are going to keep populating into the Democratic Party? There are some question marks around that,” commented Neil O’Brian, a political scientist at the University of Oregon.

More young voters are now supporting Trump

The Axios-The Generation Lab poll is reflected in other recent surveys. A USAToday-Suffolk University poll conducted in December indicated that Trump is leading among voters under 35.

A New York Times/Siena College survey conducted in December also showed Trump leading Biden by 49 percent to 43 percent among registered voters aged 18 to 29. Before this, an NBC News poll from November indicated that Trump enjoyed a four-point lead among voters under 35.

In an op-ed article written by senior politics reporter Christian Paz for Vox, he came up with three theories explaining the unexpected shift in young voter preferences based on the analysis of several pollsters from across the political spectrum.

First, some argue that the polls accurately capture dissatisfaction with Biden, citing concerns over his handling of issues such as Israel, climate change and the economy. This theory suggests that immediate changes in Biden’s platform and campaign strategy may be needed to prevent further defections.

Second, a more cautious perspective suggests that it is still early in the campaign and polls may not accurately reflect final voting choices. This theory emphasizes the historically low engagement of young voters with national political news and the potential for temporary dissatisfaction among low-information voters.

Lastly, a complex theory proposes that polling methodologies may be contributing to an overstatement of Trump’s edge, citing small sample sizes, differences in defining young voters and variations between phone and online polling methods.

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